Monday, November 2, 2015
Shorts weather? Absolutely.
A thermal ridge is moving in from the west, bringing southerly winds and temperatures between 10-20 degrees above normal values. This ridge lingers in the area until Thursday, when a surface low-pressure system moves through during the overnight period, developing to our southwest and tracking northward. The cold front associated with this surface cyclone looks like it should pass over Madison in the Thursday overnight period, based on the location of the strongest temperature gradient and the upper level jet associated with it. This front seems to be driving most of the precipitation we see in that period. However, a strong shortwave moving northward towards Madison during this time may bring precipitation on Friday following the frontal passage. Based on the concentrated vorticity maximum associated with this shortwave, we can anticipate strong vertical motions to be associated with its passage over Madison and southern Wisconsin.