Monday, November 2, 2015

Shorts weather? Absolutely.

Public weather briefing

Winter isn't here just yet! We are feeling the last remnants of summer and fall this week, with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. Rain is likely to hit the Madison area on Thursday night and Friday morning with the passage of a cold front, and we could see between three-quarters to an inch of rain over this time. However, while this system has the potential to bring a pretty decent amount of rain, it looks like it will pass relatively quickly, leaving the Madison area by Friday morning. After the passage of this system, temperatures should return to seasonal values over the weekend.


Tonight. Clear skies, with low temperatures around 45 F.

Tuesday.  Clear skies, with high temperatures around 70 F.

Tuesday night. Low temperatures around 50 F, a few degrees higher than Monday night.

Wednesday. Clear skies, with high temperatures around 70 F.

Thursday. Cloudy during the day, with rain expected in the overnight period. High temperatures expected to reach the upper 60s, with low temperatures expected to be in the mid-50s.

Outlook for Friday through Sunday.  Showers may linger into Friday morning, but should be out of the area by Friday afternoon. Friday afternoon and the rest of the weekend look dry, with temperatures returning to seasonal normals (high temperatures in the lower 50s, low temperatures in the mid-30s). [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

A thermal ridge is moving in from the west, bringing southerly winds and temperatures between 10-20 degrees above normal values. This ridge lingers in the area until Thursday, when a surface low-pressure system moves through during the overnight period, developing to our southwest and tracking northward. The cold front associated with this surface cyclone looks like it should pass over Madison in the Thursday overnight period, based on the location of the strongest temperature gradient and the upper level jet associated with it. This front seems to be driving most of the precipitation we see in that period. However, a strong shortwave moving northward towards Madison during this time may bring precipitation on Friday following the frontal passage. Based on the concentrated vorticity maximum associated with this shortwave, we can anticipate strong vertical motions to be associated with its passage over Madison and southern Wisconsin.

Ashtin Massie

1 comment:

  1. This forecast was just like the weather we had the past week: awesome! The public weather briefing was clear, concise, and gave an accurate account of the weather. The forecast section was very precise early on, as the high and low predicted temperatures were either spot on or only 1-2 degrees off. Thursday's forecast mentioned that the rain was coming in the overnight period, while the brunt of it actually fell around 7-9pm. For a 72+ hour forecast, however, this is not too bad. Also, the weekend returned to seasonal normal temperatures, which is exactly as was predicted.

    The forecast discussion section is very well written, and accurately describes how the frontal system will produce precipitation instead of just stating that it will rain. The only thing I would add would be to say the exact location of the developing thermal ridge and low-pressure center (instead of just 'west' or 'southwest') so that the reader can get a better idea of where these features originated. Other than that, it is an excellent forecast.
    Great job Ashtin!


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