Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Is it really December?

Public weather briefing

After fairly cloudy and cool days early in the week, the next few days will be unseasonably warm in Madison.  Expect a high in the low 50's tomorrow, but keep an eye on the thermometer as there is a chance to break the record high for December 10th, which was 55 degrees set way back in 1911.  The rest of the weekend will see highs in the upper 40's and lower 50's, until temperatures begin to fall back towards normal on Sunday.  Look for cloudy skies and windy conditions to accompany the heat.


Tonight. Cloudy and mild, low near 40.

Thursday. Unseasonably warm. Breezy. High 53.

Thursday night. Not quite as mild. Low 35.

Friday. Partly sunny and continued mild. High 51.

Saturday. Cloudy with chance of rain late. High near 50.

Outlook for Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures start to drop towards normal. Highs around 40. Windy on Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows in the upper 20's. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

A trough extending over the United States from a low-pressure system across Saskatchewan will drag across Wisconsin on Thursday, and, due to the available moisture and warm air advection, will lead to cloudy skies for most of the day.  These clouds will keep the already warm temperatures from dropping below around 40 degrees F, reducing the chance for morning fog. As the trough passes through the state, the temperature gradient behind the front is projected to tighten, resulting in high frontogenetic forcing through Wisconsin.  However, due to the low levels of moisture in the troposphere, will likely not result in any precipitation in Madison.

Beginning early Thursday, low-level southwesterly flow will be advecting warm air from the Great Plains into the state, resulting in the near-record high temperatures we are expected to see in the next couple of days.  Additionally, the pressure gradient will tighten thanks to a cyclone over northern Minnesota, leading to windier days heading into the weekend.

Steven Fons

Monday, December 7, 2015

Warm and Rainy Weekend Ahead

Public weather briefing

The start of the week will be cloudy with light winds and some fog in the early morning and night. There is a slight chance of rain Tuesday night. Temperatures will stay in the mid-to-upper 40s through Saturday. The sky will clear slightly from Wednesday through Friday giving us partly cloudy skies. There should be very little to no precipitation during the week with a higher chance of precipitation on Saturday or Sunday. 


Tonight. Cloudy with a low near 34. Some fog overnight.

Tuesday. Fog in the early morning then partly sunny in the afternoon. High near 45.

Tuesday night. Around 30% chance of rain overnight and cloudy with light winds. Low around 34.

Wednesday. Partly sunny during the day and cloudy at night with light winds. Low near 35 and high near 44. 

Thursday. Cloudy with slight chance of showers. High around 51 and low around 36. 

Outlook for Friday through Sunday. Cloudy with a 30% chance showers Friday evening. High in the upper 40s and low in the upper 30s. 30-50% chance of rain Saturday and Sunday with cloudy skies. Sunday's high temperature in the upper 40s on low near the low 30s. Sunday's high in the upper 30s. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

A shortwave thermal ridge sits over Wisconsin on Monday which is advecting warm temperatures into the area for a few days. Confluence of northwesterly winds causes a weak low pressure system to form Tuesday night over Wisconsin which is the cause of the slight chance of rain during the night. A small thermal trough then propagates eastward on Wednesday causing a slight drop in temperatures. Another thermal ridge propagates over Wisconsin bringing warmer temperatures and slightly stronger winds on Thursday. No strong jets can be found over Wisconsin over the week which corresponds to the lack of strong, organized low pressure systems during the week. 

Alex Delvoye

Thursday, December 3, 2015

A snow no-show

Public weather briefing

The recent cold pool of air over the region has now departed to the east, allowing for slightly warmer temperatures today. This trend looks set to continue for the weekend and into next week, with day temperatures much higher than average for this time of year. There will also be plenty of sunny spells, with mostly clear conditions throughout the week and no obvious signs of precipitation. Cold temperatures at night will result from this lack of cloud cover.


Tonight. Mostly clear and bitterly cold, with lows in the mid 20's.

Friday. Sunny with light winds. High around 45.

Friday night. Mostly clear, with lows in the upper 20's.

Saturday. Continued sunny conditions and above-average temperatures, with highs around 47. Partly cloudy over night and lows around 31.

Sunday. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 40's. Continued cloud cover into the night, with lows in the upper 20's.

Outlook for Monday through Wednesday. Steady conditions, with little change from day to day for the first half of next week. During the day it will be mostly sunny and temperatures will reach the mid 40's - still much higher than average for this time of year. By night, temperatures will fall to the lower 30's and some cloud will be present, but no precipitation.  [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

The cold pool of air over southern Wisconsin has departed to the east, allowing for warmer air to fill in from the central plains. A strong ridge to the west of the Rockies will move eastward, providing favourable conditions for a high pressure system over the central plains to intensify. Over the weekend, this high will develop into a strong anticyclone and moves north-eastward towards the Midwest, causing subsidence over our area. This factor, plus continued warm air advection from the south, will cause the temperatures for the week ahead to be much warmer than average for this time of year.

Rich Johnson

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Mild and Mundane...

Public weather briefing

Following a very light snowfall event this morning and light snow on and off throughout today with temps in the 30s, we may expect a precipitation-free evening with lows dropping to 28.  The departure of a cold air mass moving to the east will mean mild days into next week with highs consistently in the low to mid 40s peaking on Saturday with a high of 47.  In addition to temperatures well above freezing, mostly-clear to clear conditions are expected to last throughout the forecast duration.  


Tonight. Mostly Cloudy with a low around 28.

Thursday. Mostly sunny.  High around 40.

Thursday night. Mostly clear with fog developing after midnight.  Lows around 25.

Friday. Fog in the morning followed by mostly sunny skies and a hight in the low 40s.

Saturday. Sunny with a high in the upper 40s.

Outlook for Sunday and Monday. Both days are expected to be mostly sunny with highs in the lower 40s. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

The cyclone that has brought light snow to the midwest has moved out of the region but the cold pool it formed has lingered in the area and now slowly moves east.  With its departure, moderate low level winds will push warmer air into the region from the plains.  A high originating in the south will develop into an intensifying anticyclone as a ridge west of the Rockies moves eastward.  The high pressure center will move slowly east-northeastward into the weekend and will result in subsidence and more warm air advection for our region.  

As the short wave trough trailing behind the broad ridge moves in to the area Saturday, vorticity advection is forecasted to drive moderate ascent in the region but there will be inadequate moisture for precipitation.  

Alexander Fox

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Doesn't December mean winter?

Public weather briefing

After a lovely Thanksgiving weekend Madison was greeted with a dreary Monday, filled with scattered rain showers. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your precipitation preference for December 1st) winter storm Delphi passed to the west, dumping snow on much of Minnesota and the Dakotas, but only clipping northern Wisconsin. Once this system moves out, moderate December temperatures will move in. Temperatures will consistently reach the mid 40s during the day and hover around 30 at night. There will be little hope for snow in the upcoming week.


Tonight. Mostly cloudy with lows around 30. Slight chance of rain/snow mix with minimal accumulation.

Wednesday. Mostly overcast with light winds. Highs in the mid 30s.

Wednesday night. Clouds clearing overnight.  Lows in the upper 20s.

Thursday. Sunny and slightly warmer. High around 40. Low around 30.

Friday. Continued sunny. Highs in the low 40s.

Outlook for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will be mostly sunny and the temperature could reach close to 50. Sunday will be comparable, only slightly more cloudy and reaching the mid to upper 40s. Each night will dip down to around 30. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

Winter storm Delphi showed some interesting development. The storm is characterized by a cold pool of air that has been sequestered from its origin in Canada due to a thermal ridge. The same circular region exhibited high vorticity, as the jet pattern across the US wrapped itself around the cyclone. 
The storm will continue to move through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest for the rest of the day, bringing sizable snowfall to many of our neighboring states. The cold front associated with Delphi might bring minor precipitation to our area tonight, but it would be a rain/snow mix - nothing like others have seen from this storm. 

Once the cold pool moves out of our area on Wednesday evening, we will see uniformly sunny and moderately warm days through the rest of the week. Much of the Midwest will be located in a thermal ridge, bringing us these relatively warm temperatures for the first week of December. We will also be located in a broad anticyclone, with minimal expectations for precipitation, rain or snow.

Kaitlyn Krzyzaniak

Monday, November 23, 2015

Turkey, Stuffing, and... Rain?

Public weather briefing

The beginning of the week will stay around a constant of about 40 degrees during the day with partial cloudiness and breaks of sun. Winds will begin to increase into Tuesday night as a cold front makes it's way towards the Midwest. Rain will begin later on Wednesday night and continue on until Friday morning, possibly becoming snow as it cools down Friday morning. Thanksgiving Day is forecasted to be slightly warmer as the rain comes down, while cooling off over night. Over Thanksgiving Weekend, temperatures will remain around the low 30's, cooling down to the low 20's at night.


Tonight. Partly cloudy with slight winds. Lows in the mid 20's.

Tuesday. Partly cloudy with slight to moderate winds. Highs in the upper 30's.

Tuesday night. Partly cloudy with moderate winds.  Lows in the mid 20's.

Wednesday. Slight chance of rain. Winds around 10mph. High of around 40. Lows in the upper 30's.

Thursday. Rain. Highs in the upper 40's. Low around 30.

Outlook for Friday through Sunday. Slight chance of snow showers on Friday with temperatures in the lower 30's. Saturday and Sunday will be partly cloudy with highs in the lower 30's and lows in the lower 20's. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

With the thermal trough that has been sitting over Wisconsin for the last week moving to the east, we will start to see some slightly warmer temperatures for a few days. Winds will begin to pickup and come from the southwest as a new thermal trough begins to move over the Great Plains. On Wednesday night, a cold front associated with a cyclone to our north will bring in chances of rain over the Madison area, but due to the Northeast-Eastwards orientation of the front, temperatures will state somewhat warm. Confluence of Northwesterly winds into Southwesterly winds will help to intensify the thermal gradient of the front, aiding in vertical motions and precipitation formation. A thermal trough will move in Friday Morning, dropping temperatures and creating a chance for some small snow showers as the front moves out of the area. For the weekend, the cold temperatures brought on by the thermal trough will keep the area at a steady mid 30's temperature.

Tyler Wright

Friday, November 20, 2015


Public weather briefing

Temperatures have dropped substantially over the past few days, and this will help with precipitation coming in the form of snow, instead of rain. This morning, the National Weather Service office in Milwaukee issued a Winter Storm Warning for much of southern Wisconsin (in effect through noon Saturday). Our first winter weather event is expected to begin tonight and continue into tomorrow afternoon. Near freezing temperatures are expected tonight and will persist through the weekend. Warmer temperatures are expected during the middle of next week, and a chance of rain is expected for the Thanksgiving holiday.


Tonight. 3-5 inches of snow expected. Lows in the mid 20's.

Saturday. Snow in the morning. Clear afternoon. High around 30.

Saturday night. Clear. Low in the lower 10's.

Sunday. Sunny, but very chilly. High in the mid 20s.

Monday. Clear skies. High near 40.

Outlook for Tuesday through Thursday. Sunny Tuesday, with chances of rain on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs in the mid 30's Tuesday and in the 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. Lows in the 20's on all three days. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

Over the past couple days, a westerly flow, resulting from a cyclone located in near the Hudson Bay, has brought arctic air into Wisconsin. This cold air combined with ascent in the region, create the ingredients that will make for our first snow event of the season. This ascent will primarily main south of Madison, which will result in higher snow totals in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. While the low pressure system near the Hudson Bay moves east this weekend, Wisconsin will remain at the bottom of a trough feature and continue to have cold air brought from Canada, resulting in chilly temperatures throughout the weekend.

At the beginning of next week, a warm front is expected to pass through Wisconsin, indicated by high absolute vorticity and tight temperature gradient. Temperatures will be much warmer and more comfortable than those expected this weekend. Southwesterly flow during the middle of next week will bring warmer temperatures and moist air from the Pacific to the midwest. This creates a potential for rain at this time due to the flow bringing a low pressure system toward Wisconsin as well.

Lauren Deanes

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Winter is coming...

Public weather briefing

After some wonderful weather at the beginning of this week, precipitation will stick around for the next 24hours. The rain will end by Thursday with the arrival of the cold front that has been causing the rain. Thursday through the foreseeable future will be the coldest temperatures we have experienced since spring. During the day on Thursday and Friday should be partly cloudy but fairly cold. There is a chance of snow Friday night into Saturday, but that forecast might change in a couple days. Stay tuned for updates on that.


Tonight. Light to moderate rain. Lows in the upper 30's.

Wednesday. Rain continuing all day, ending in the late evening. High around 58.

Wednesday night. Rain ending.  Low in the lower 30's.

Thursday. Partly cloudy and colder. Light winds. High 41. Low around 23.

Friday. Continued sunny in the morning, chance of snow in the evening. High near 37, lows in the teens.

Outlook for Saturday through Sunday. There is a chance of snow Saturday morning. Colder on Saturday and Sunday, highs hovering around freezing. Other than the chances for snow, both days should be partly cloudy and pleasant.[CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

A cyclone that is out over the plains currently will be moving into our area tonight into Wednesday, bringing widespread precipitation, but no real threat for severe weather. There are strong southerly winds bringing warm moist air from the gulf of Mexico that are providing the source of moisture to be precipitated out. Behind the cold front that is causing the frontogenetic precipitation is another cold front associated with a very potent cyclone moving eastwardly through Canada. This is the cold front that will be dropping the temperatures to near freezing this coming weekend. With the widespread precipitation associated with the first frontal passage, there will not be enough moisture in the atmosphere to cause major precipitation with the second, more intense front. 

The snowfall forecast has been changing for Friday into Saturday. The current predictions are indicating that Madison could see up to 4 inches of snow. This is updated from earlier this week that predicted smaller amounts of snow to fall south of Madison. Predicting snowfall amounts can be difficult, so an update to this forecast will need to be examined closer to Friday.

Gabriel Bromley

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Winter Is NOT Coming... Yet

Public weather briefing

Madison will be reminded tonight that winter hasn't come just yet.  After a beautiful, warm day for early November, Madison will be hit tonight by some severe storms and receive up to 0.65" of rain.  Following the severe weather are cooler temperatures and high wind speeds for Madison, with a temperature low reaching 27˚F on Friday and winds up to 35mph on Thursday and Friday. However, the weekend will bring us less rigid weather conditions, with temperature around the high 50's and wind speeds up to 15-20mph, and clear skies.  On Monday throughout Wednesday, there will be scattered showers.


Tonight. Severe Storm through the morning.  Low in the lower 40's.

Thursday. High wind speeds and cloudy.  High of 49˚F.

Thursday Night. Still windy and cloudy.  Low of 34˚F.

Friday. Cloudy and Windy.  Skies might clear up some in the afternoon.  High of 45˚F, low of 27˚F.

Saturday. Clear skies.  High of 56˚F, Low of 39˚F.

Sunday. Clear skies, clouds to roll in during the afternoon.  High of 58˚F, Low of 41˚F.

Outlook for Monday through Wednesday. Cloudy, with a chance of scattered showers starting on Monday and continuing throughout the next two days. Highs staying in the mid 50's, lows around the low 40's.


Forecast Discussion

There is a strong low pressure system crossing Madison tonight from the Southwest.  This, along with frontogenesis and warm air advection, contribute to produce the rain that Madison will experience tonight.  A cold front will pass through on Thursday, bringing temperatures down by at least 10˚F from what Madison experienced on Wednesday.  With the cold front are strong gusts of wind that will be coming from the Northwest (a wind advisory will be in effect).  Broad scale ridging will bring about warm temperatures for the weekend.  A large scale trough will coming early next week to bring about some cloudy conditions and scattered showers.

Nicholas J. Vertz

Monday, November 9, 2015

Severe Weather Outlook for November. No, I am not kidding.

Public weather briefing

For Monday, we are looking at a sunny and mild day with highs around the mid 50s. Quiet weather will continue until Tuesday night. Severe weather may begin developing in the area at this time. Expect wind gusts and heavy rain. However, highs will continue to be in the mid 50s. The system will move out of the area Wednesday night with showers gradually coming to an end. Thursday and Friday will have mild temperature but gusty winds going into the weekend. Friday into Saturday temperature will begin to drop and clouds will enter the area.


Tonight. Clear and cold with a low around 31.
Tuesday. High around 56. Mostly sunny and little wind.
Tuesday night. Clouds move into the area. Showers overnight with mild winds. Low of 40
Wednesday. Thunderstorm likely in the afternoon perhaps showers throughout the day. Expect a lot of rain. Cloudy and breezing with a high of 55.
Thursday. Showers may continue to noon at which time it will clear up and become mostly sunny. High of 45.
Outlook for Friday through Sunday. No rain expected over the weekend. However, temperature will remain cool with highs near the mid 40s and lows in the lower 30s. Expect gusty winds and sun Saturday and Sunday. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

Dry and calm conditions are expect until Tuesday night  due to a weak ridge situated over the Midwest. However, a strong southward dip in the jet stream is expected to be over the Midwest/Plains on Wednesday where it will aid in the development of a strong surface low pressure system. The system is expected to intensify as it moves towards the Great Lakes as it sucks up moisture from the gulf of Mexico. The result is strong wind shear and instability with colder air aloft and warm humid air below. This storm will likely bring severe weather to much of the Midwest including Madison on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, a second low will come from the Dakotas are bring cold air and clouds to the region. This will keep the area cool for the weekend.

Jessica Gartzke