Severe Weather Outlook for November. No, I am not kidding.

Public weather briefing

For Monday, we are looking at a sunny and mild day with highs around the mid 50s. Quiet weather will continue until Tuesday night. Severe weather may begin developing in the area at this time. Expect wind gusts and heavy rain. However, highs will continue to be in the mid 50s. The system will move out of the area Wednesday night with showers gradually coming to an end. Thursday and Friday will have mild temperature but gusty winds going into the weekend. Friday into Saturday temperature will begin to drop and clouds will enter the area.

Forecast 

Tonight. Clear and cold with a low around 31.

Tuesday. High around 56. Mostly sunny and little wind.

Tuesday night. Clouds move into the area. Showers overnight with mild winds. Low of 40

Wednesday. Thunderstorm likely in the afternoon perhaps showers throughout the day. Expect a lot of rain. Cloudy and breezing with a high of 55.

Thursday. Showers may continue to noon at which time it will clear up and become mostly sunny. High of 45.

Outlook for Friday through Sunday. No rain expected over the weekend. However, temperature will remain cool with highs near the mid 40s and lows in the lower 30s. Expect gusty winds and sun Saturday and Sunday. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

Dry and calm conditions are expect until Tuesday night  due to a weak ridge situated over the Midwest. However, a strong southward dip in the jet stream is expected to be over the Midwest/Plains on Wednesday where it will aid in the development of a strong surface low pressure system. The system is expected to intensify as it moves towards the Great Lakes as it sucks up moisture from the gulf of Mexico. The result is strong wind shear and instability with colder air aloft and warm humid air below. This storm will likely bring severe weather to much of the Midwest including Madison on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, a second low will come from the Dakotas are bring cold air and clouds to the region. This will keep the area cool for the weekend.

Jessica Gartzke