Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Is it really December?

Public weather briefing

After fairly cloudy and cool days early in the week, the next few days will be unseasonably warm in Madison.  Expect a high in the low 50's tomorrow, but keep an eye on the thermometer as there is a chance to break the record high for December 10th, which was 55 degrees set way back in 1911.  The rest of the weekend will see highs in the upper 40's and lower 50's, until temperatures begin to fall back towards normal on Sunday.  Look for cloudy skies and windy conditions to accompany the heat.


Tonight. Cloudy and mild, low near 40.

Thursday. Unseasonably warm. Breezy. High 53.

Thursday night. Not quite as mild. Low 35.

Friday. Partly sunny and continued mild. High 51.

Saturday. Cloudy with chance of rain late. High near 50.

Outlook for Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures start to drop towards normal. Highs around 40. Windy on Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows in the upper 20's. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

A trough extending over the United States from a low-pressure system across Saskatchewan will drag across Wisconsin on Thursday, and, due to the available moisture and warm air advection, will lead to cloudy skies for most of the day.  These clouds will keep the already warm temperatures from dropping below around 40 degrees F, reducing the chance for morning fog. As the trough passes through the state, the temperature gradient behind the front is projected to tighten, resulting in high frontogenetic forcing through Wisconsin.  However, due to the low levels of moisture in the troposphere, will likely not result in any precipitation in Madison.

Beginning early Thursday, low-level southwesterly flow will be advecting warm air from the Great Plains into the state, resulting in the near-record high temperatures we are expected to see in the next couple of days.  Additionally, the pressure gradient will tighten thanks to a cyclone over northern Minnesota, leading to windier days heading into the weekend.

Steven Fons