Monday, December 7, 2015

Warm and Rainy Weekend Ahead

Public weather briefing

The start of the week will be cloudy with light winds and some fog in the early morning and night. There is a slight chance of rain Tuesday night. Temperatures will stay in the mid-to-upper 40s through Saturday. The sky will clear slightly from Wednesday through Friday giving us partly cloudy skies. There should be very little to no precipitation during the week with a higher chance of precipitation on Saturday or Sunday. 


Tonight. Cloudy with a low near 34. Some fog overnight.

Tuesday. Fog in the early morning then partly sunny in the afternoon. High near 45.

Tuesday night. Around 30% chance of rain overnight and cloudy with light winds. Low around 34.

Wednesday. Partly sunny during the day and cloudy at night with light winds. Low near 35 and high near 44. 

Thursday. Cloudy with slight chance of showers. High around 51 and low around 36. 

Outlook for Friday through Sunday. Cloudy with a 30% chance showers Friday evening. High in the upper 40s and low in the upper 30s. 30-50% chance of rain Saturday and Sunday with cloudy skies. Sunday's high temperature in the upper 40s on low near the low 30s. Sunday's high in the upper 30s. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

A shortwave thermal ridge sits over Wisconsin on Monday which is advecting warm temperatures into the area for a few days. Confluence of northwesterly winds causes a weak low pressure system to form Tuesday night over Wisconsin which is the cause of the slight chance of rain during the night. A small thermal trough then propagates eastward on Wednesday causing a slight drop in temperatures. Another thermal ridge propagates over Wisconsin bringing warmer temperatures and slightly stronger winds on Thursday. No strong jets can be found over Wisconsin over the week which corresponds to the lack of strong, organized low pressure systems during the week. 

Alex Delvoye

1 comment:

  1. A low of 37 was 3 degrees within range of the predicted low for Monday night. Tuesday's actual high of 44 was one degree below the predicted value, and Tuesday's low of 36 was 2 degrees off the predicted value. Wednesday's low of 36 was 1 degree below the predicted value, and the high of 49 was 5 degrees above the predicted value. Thursday's high set a record of 56, five degrees above the predicted value, while Wednesday's low temperature was six degrees above. Actual highs and lows were in the mid 40s and mid 30s on Friday and Saturday. To kick off another warm week, Sunday's high temperature set the record high, 3 degrees above the 1975 record of 57. Overall, the temperature forecast was of relatively high accuracy, waning a bit later in later forecast days to stronger warm air advection than expected associated with a surface cyclone which tracked across northern Wisconsin.

    Precipitation-wise, the forecast was also accurate. A trace of rain fell Thursday and Friday, .01 inches fell on Saturday, and Sunday ended up being the major rain day with 1.45 inches of rain recorded at the Dane County Regional Airport.


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