Monday, November 23, 2015

Turkey, Stuffing, and... Rain?

Public weather briefing

The beginning of the week will stay around a constant of about 40 degrees during the day with partial cloudiness and breaks of sun. Winds will begin to increase into Tuesday night as a cold front makes it's way towards the Midwest. Rain will begin later on Wednesday night and continue on until Friday morning, possibly becoming snow as it cools down Friday morning. Thanksgiving Day is forecasted to be slightly warmer as the rain comes down, while cooling off over night. Over Thanksgiving Weekend, temperatures will remain around the low 30's, cooling down to the low 20's at night.


Tonight. Partly cloudy with slight winds. Lows in the mid 20's.

Tuesday. Partly cloudy with slight to moderate winds. Highs in the upper 30's.

Tuesday night. Partly cloudy with moderate winds.  Lows in the mid 20's.

Wednesday. Slight chance of rain. Winds around 10mph. High of around 40. Lows in the upper 30's.

Thursday. Rain. Highs in the upper 40's. Low around 30.

Outlook for Friday through Sunday. Slight chance of snow showers on Friday with temperatures in the lower 30's. Saturday and Sunday will be partly cloudy with highs in the lower 30's and lows in the lower 20's. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

With the thermal trough that has been sitting over Wisconsin for the last week moving to the east, we will start to see some slightly warmer temperatures for a few days. Winds will begin to pickup and come from the southwest as a new thermal trough begins to move over the Great Plains. On Wednesday night, a cold front associated with a cyclone to our north will bring in chances of rain over the Madison area, but due to the Northeast-Eastwards orientation of the front, temperatures will state somewhat warm. Confluence of Northwesterly winds into Southwesterly winds will help to intensify the thermal gradient of the front, aiding in vertical motions and precipitation formation. A thermal trough will move in Friday Morning, dropping temperatures and creating a chance for some small snow showers as the front moves out of the area. For the weekend, the cold temperatures brought on by the thermal trough will keep the area at a steady mid 30's temperature.

Tyler Wright

Friday, November 20, 2015


Public weather briefing

Temperatures have dropped substantially over the past few days, and this will help with precipitation coming in the form of snow, instead of rain. This morning, the National Weather Service office in Milwaukee issued a Winter Storm Warning for much of southern Wisconsin (in effect through noon Saturday). Our first winter weather event is expected to begin tonight and continue into tomorrow afternoon. Near freezing temperatures are expected tonight and will persist through the weekend. Warmer temperatures are expected during the middle of next week, and a chance of rain is expected for the Thanksgiving holiday.


Tonight. 3-5 inches of snow expected. Lows in the mid 20's.

Saturday. Snow in the morning. Clear afternoon. High around 30.

Saturday night. Clear. Low in the lower 10's.

Sunday. Sunny, but very chilly. High in the mid 20s.

Monday. Clear skies. High near 40.

Outlook for Tuesday through Thursday. Sunny Tuesday, with chances of rain on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs in the mid 30's Tuesday and in the 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. Lows in the 20's on all three days. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

Over the past couple days, a westerly flow, resulting from a cyclone located in near the Hudson Bay, has brought arctic air into Wisconsin. This cold air combined with ascent in the region, create the ingredients that will make for our first snow event of the season. This ascent will primarily main south of Madison, which will result in higher snow totals in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. While the low pressure system near the Hudson Bay moves east this weekend, Wisconsin will remain at the bottom of a trough feature and continue to have cold air brought from Canada, resulting in chilly temperatures throughout the weekend.

At the beginning of next week, a warm front is expected to pass through Wisconsin, indicated by high absolute vorticity and tight temperature gradient. Temperatures will be much warmer and more comfortable than those expected this weekend. Southwesterly flow during the middle of next week will bring warmer temperatures and moist air from the Pacific to the midwest. This creates a potential for rain at this time due to the flow bringing a low pressure system toward Wisconsin as well.

Lauren Deanes

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Winter is coming...

Public weather briefing

After some wonderful weather at the beginning of this week, precipitation will stick around for the next 24hours. The rain will end by Thursday with the arrival of the cold front that has been causing the rain. Thursday through the foreseeable future will be the coldest temperatures we have experienced since spring. During the day on Thursday and Friday should be partly cloudy but fairly cold. There is a chance of snow Friday night into Saturday, but that forecast might change in a couple days. Stay tuned for updates on that.


Tonight. Light to moderate rain. Lows in the upper 30's.

Wednesday. Rain continuing all day, ending in the late evening. High around 58.

Wednesday night. Rain ending.  Low in the lower 30's.

Thursday. Partly cloudy and colder. Light winds. High 41. Low around 23.

Friday. Continued sunny in the morning, chance of snow in the evening. High near 37, lows in the teens.

Outlook for Saturday through Sunday. There is a chance of snow Saturday morning. Colder on Saturday and Sunday, highs hovering around freezing. Other than the chances for snow, both days should be partly cloudy and pleasant.[CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

A cyclone that is out over the plains currently will be moving into our area tonight into Wednesday, bringing widespread precipitation, but no real threat for severe weather. There are strong southerly winds bringing warm moist air from the gulf of Mexico that are providing the source of moisture to be precipitated out. Behind the cold front that is causing the frontogenetic precipitation is another cold front associated with a very potent cyclone moving eastwardly through Canada. This is the cold front that will be dropping the temperatures to near freezing this coming weekend. With the widespread precipitation associated with the first frontal passage, there will not be enough moisture in the atmosphere to cause major precipitation with the second, more intense front. 

The snowfall forecast has been changing for Friday into Saturday. The current predictions are indicating that Madison could see up to 4 inches of snow. This is updated from earlier this week that predicted smaller amounts of snow to fall south of Madison. Predicting snowfall amounts can be difficult, so an update to this forecast will need to be examined closer to Friday.

Gabriel Bromley

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Winter Is NOT Coming... Yet

Public weather briefing

Madison will be reminded tonight that winter hasn't come just yet.  After a beautiful, warm day for early November, Madison will be hit tonight by some severe storms and receive up to 0.65" of rain.  Following the severe weather are cooler temperatures and high wind speeds for Madison, with a temperature low reaching 27˚F on Friday and winds up to 35mph on Thursday and Friday. However, the weekend will bring us less rigid weather conditions, with temperature around the high 50's and wind speeds up to 15-20mph, and clear skies.  On Monday throughout Wednesday, there will be scattered showers.


Tonight. Severe Storm through the morning.  Low in the lower 40's.

Thursday. High wind speeds and cloudy.  High of 49˚F.

Thursday Night. Still windy and cloudy.  Low of 34˚F.

Friday. Cloudy and Windy.  Skies might clear up some in the afternoon.  High of 45˚F, low of 27˚F.

Saturday. Clear skies.  High of 56˚F, Low of 39˚F.

Sunday. Clear skies, clouds to roll in during the afternoon.  High of 58˚F, Low of 41˚F.

Outlook for Monday through Wednesday. Cloudy, with a chance of scattered showers starting on Monday and continuing throughout the next two days. Highs staying in the mid 50's, lows around the low 40's.


Forecast Discussion

There is a strong low pressure system crossing Madison tonight from the Southwest.  This, along with frontogenesis and warm air advection, contribute to produce the rain that Madison will experience tonight.  A cold front will pass through on Thursday, bringing temperatures down by at least 10˚F from what Madison experienced on Wednesday.  With the cold front are strong gusts of wind that will be coming from the Northwest (a wind advisory will be in effect).  Broad scale ridging will bring about warm temperatures for the weekend.  A large scale trough will coming early next week to bring about some cloudy conditions and scattered showers.

Nicholas J. Vertz

Monday, November 9, 2015

Severe Weather Outlook for November. No, I am not kidding.

Public weather briefing

For Monday, we are looking at a sunny and mild day with highs around the mid 50s. Quiet weather will continue until Tuesday night. Severe weather may begin developing in the area at this time. Expect wind gusts and heavy rain. However, highs will continue to be in the mid 50s. The system will move out of the area Wednesday night with showers gradually coming to an end. Thursday and Friday will have mild temperature but gusty winds going into the weekend. Friday into Saturday temperature will begin to drop and clouds will enter the area.


Tonight. Clear and cold with a low around 31.
Tuesday. High around 56. Mostly sunny and little wind.
Tuesday night. Clouds move into the area. Showers overnight with mild winds. Low of 40
Wednesday. Thunderstorm likely in the afternoon perhaps showers throughout the day. Expect a lot of rain. Cloudy and breezing with a high of 55.
Thursday. Showers may continue to noon at which time it will clear up and become mostly sunny. High of 45.
Outlook for Friday through Sunday. No rain expected over the weekend. However, temperature will remain cool with highs near the mid 40s and lows in the lower 30s. Expect gusty winds and sun Saturday and Sunday. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

Dry and calm conditions are expect until Tuesday night  due to a weak ridge situated over the Midwest. However, a strong southward dip in the jet stream is expected to be over the Midwest/Plains on Wednesday where it will aid in the development of a strong surface low pressure system. The system is expected to intensify as it moves towards the Great Lakes as it sucks up moisture from the gulf of Mexico. The result is strong wind shear and instability with colder air aloft and warm humid air below. This storm will likely bring severe weather to much of the Midwest including Madison on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, a second low will come from the Dakotas are bring cold air and clouds to the region. This will keep the area cool for the weekend.

Jessica Gartzke

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Fall, where did you go?

Public weather briefing

Another beautiful day in Madison with with a high temperature around 20 degrees above the average. We will see some clouds rolling through tomorrow just ahead of the cold front. This cold front will bring rain on Thursday evening but should be done by Friday morning. After this the skies will clear for abundant sunshine for the weekend with high temperatures in the mid 50's. Hopefully the fall weather will be here to stay.


Tonight. Clear skies fade as more clouds roll through. Lows in the mid 50's.

Thursday. Mostly cloudy with moderate winds. High around 67.

Thursday night. A good chance for rain. Lows in the low 40's.

Friday. Sunny with stronger winds. High 50. Low around 35.

Saturday. Abundant sunshine. High in the low 50's.

Outlook for Monday through Wednesday. Sunny on Monday turning into mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday and a chance for some evening showers on Wednesday. Highs in the mid 50's with lows in the upper 30's on Monday and Tuesday and mid 40's on Wednesday. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion 

A cold front will move through Madison Thursday night that is associated with a low pressure system encompassing the middle of the United States. This front will move east along with the thermal ridge that has been situated Wisconsin the last couple days bring warmer than normal temperatures. In addition, this front has a lot of positive vorticity associated with it meaning upward vertical motion. This is conducive to where the preciptation is located along this cold front. After this low pressure system moves through a high pressure system will settle over the Midwest. This will bring abundant sunshine. Furhtermore, Madison will be in a thermal trough bringing in northwest winds which will cool temperatures down and bring them back to normal

Anna Sienko

Monday, November 2, 2015

Shorts weather? Absolutely.

Public weather briefing

Winter isn't here just yet! We are feeling the last remnants of summer and fall this week, with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. Rain is likely to hit the Madison area on Thursday night and Friday morning with the passage of a cold front, and we could see between three-quarters to an inch of rain over this time. However, while this system has the potential to bring a pretty decent amount of rain, it looks like it will pass relatively quickly, leaving the Madison area by Friday morning. After the passage of this system, temperatures should return to seasonal values over the weekend.


Tonight. Clear skies, with low temperatures around 45 F.

Tuesday.  Clear skies, with high temperatures around 70 F.

Tuesday night. Low temperatures around 50 F, a few degrees higher than Monday night.

Wednesday. Clear skies, with high temperatures around 70 F.

Thursday. Cloudy during the day, with rain expected in the overnight period. High temperatures expected to reach the upper 60s, with low temperatures expected to be in the mid-50s.

Outlook for Friday through Sunday.  Showers may linger into Friday morning, but should be out of the area by Friday afternoon. Friday afternoon and the rest of the weekend look dry, with temperatures returning to seasonal normals (high temperatures in the lower 50s, low temperatures in the mid-30s). [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

A thermal ridge is moving in from the west, bringing southerly winds and temperatures between 10-20 degrees above normal values. This ridge lingers in the area until Thursday, when a surface low-pressure system moves through during the overnight period, developing to our southwest and tracking northward. The cold front associated with this surface cyclone looks like it should pass over Madison in the Thursday overnight period, based on the location of the strongest temperature gradient and the upper level jet associated with it. This front seems to be driving most of the precipitation we see in that period. However, a strong shortwave moving northward towards Madison during this time may bring precipitation on Friday following the frontal passage. Based on the concentrated vorticity maximum associated with this shortwave, we can anticipate strong vertical motions to be associated with its passage over Madison and southern Wisconsin.

Ashtin Massie