Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Winter is coming...

Public weather briefing

After some wonderful weather at the beginning of this week, precipitation will stick around for the next 24hours. The rain will end by Thursday with the arrival of the cold front that has been causing the rain. Thursday through the foreseeable future will be the coldest temperatures we have experienced since spring. During the day on Thursday and Friday should be partly cloudy but fairly cold. There is a chance of snow Friday night into Saturday, but that forecast might change in a couple days. Stay tuned for updates on that.


Tonight. Light to moderate rain. Lows in the upper 30's.

Wednesday. Rain continuing all day, ending in the late evening. High around 58.

Wednesday night. Rain ending.  Low in the lower 30's.

Thursday. Partly cloudy and colder. Light winds. High 41. Low around 23.

Friday. Continued sunny in the morning, chance of snow in the evening. High near 37, lows in the teens.

Outlook for Saturday through Sunday. There is a chance of snow Saturday morning. Colder on Saturday and Sunday, highs hovering around freezing. Other than the chances for snow, both days should be partly cloudy and pleasant.[CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

A cyclone that is out over the plains currently will be moving into our area tonight into Wednesday, bringing widespread precipitation, but no real threat for severe weather. There are strong southerly winds bringing warm moist air from the gulf of Mexico that are providing the source of moisture to be precipitated out. Behind the cold front that is causing the frontogenetic precipitation is another cold front associated with a very potent cyclone moving eastwardly through Canada. This is the cold front that will be dropping the temperatures to near freezing this coming weekend. With the widespread precipitation associated with the first frontal passage, there will not be enough moisture in the atmosphere to cause major precipitation with the second, more intense front. 

The snowfall forecast has been changing for Friday into Saturday. The current predictions are indicating that Madison could see up to 4 inches of snow. This is updated from earlier this week that predicted smaller amounts of snow to fall south of Madison. Predicting snowfall amounts can be difficult, so an update to this forecast will need to be examined closer to Friday.

Gabriel Bromley

1 comment:

  1. Great job, Gabe! Super exciting day for the forecast. You were spot on with your chance of snow, but there wasn't as much rain on Wednesday as expected. Temperatures were well-forecasted.

    I really liked your analysis of the cyclone and how it impacts weather here in Madison, looking at both the air moving from the Gulf of Mexico and the cold front coming from Canada. I liked the focus on cyclogenesis as well as frontogenesis as it gives the reader a more complete understanding of what is going on.


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