Monday, December 1, 2014

Week of Warming

Public weather briefing

After a chilly and snowy thanksgiving break, the temperature will be expected to increase by Tuesday afternoon and remain constant throughout the rest of the week.  We expect no precipitation during the week, which could lead to some significant snowmelt over the weekend.  Low temperatures tonight will be in the single digits, but will increase tomorrow into the rest of the week.  Daytime high temperatures will slowly increase to the upper 30's this week with mostly sunny skies, but strong winds out of the south and west will make it feel a bit cooler.  The weekend is shaping up to be very nice, and should even continue through early next week.


Tonight. Partly cloudy with a low in the single digits around 5.

Tuesday. Partly sunny and the high will be 30 with winds out of the southwest at about 18 knots.

Tuesday night. Cloudy and cool.  Low in the lower 20's.

Wednesday. Sunny with a high again at 30 and winds out of the west around 20 knots. Cooling off into the night down to mid teens.

Thursday. Partly cloudy high in the upper 20's.

Outlook for Friday through Sunday. Partly cloudy Friday, Saturday and Sunday with highs consistently in the mid 30's and almost no chance of precipitation. Lows in the upper 20's. [CONFIDENCE: High]

Forecast Discussion

Subsidence accompanying the passage of an anticyclone over the upper-midwest this evening will provide clearing skies for the night.  With stronger winds and clear skies, radiational cooling will be maximized leading to frigid Monday night.  Tuesday will be mostly sunny bringing up the high temperature, but cloudy into the night insulating the area making a warmer low.  A small amount of cold air advection will bring a slight cool-down on Wednesday, but this gives way to a low level ridge to the east on Thursday into Friday, bringing in warm air for the rest of the week.  (average daily high temperature for later in the week 35F; low 20F).

The only wrinkle in an otherwise dry forecast for the week, is a descending cyclonic feature from the north that extends a pressure trough into northern Wisconsin.  The thickness contours over Wisconsin at this time are oriented southwest to northeast, indicating that the band of precipitation will be forced away from southern Wisconsin. Unless this orientation changes, this forecast should remain dry into the weekend.

Rachel Down and Sam Hartwick

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