Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Warm Weekend Outlook

Public weather briefing

After a cloudy Tuesday, the good chance for clear conditions into the rest of the week continues. High pressure moves into the area tomorrow from Canada, providing calm conditions for the week ahead.  Along with this, another high pressure system from the Rockies has an impact in the region later in the week providing for more mild conditions.  Low temperatures tonight will be cold at just below 20 degrees.  Daytime high temperatures will slowly increase throughout the week providing for a very comfortable weekend, temperature wise.  It is looking very likely for above 40 degree highs for the weekend.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are the main feature for the middle to end of the week, before the clouds return for end of the weekend.  Also, the possibility for rain or snow comes into the picture at the start of next week.  Attributed to this is a low pressure system to the west along the Great Plains and north into Canada.


Tonight. Partly cloudy and light winds. Low around 20.

Wednesday. Mostly sunny with light winds. High around 30.

Wednesday night. Clear and cold.  Low in the upper teen's.

Thursday. Sunny and cool. Light winds. High of 35 and a low around 23.

Friday. Continued sun and warmer with a high in the upper 30's. Low in the mid 20's.

Outlook for Saturday through Monday. Clear Saturday, before clouds return Sunday and Monday. Very nice temperatures in the mid to up 40's for Saturday and Sunday before cooling to the upper 30's on Monday. There is likely going to be precipitation along with the cooling Monday. Probably a mix of snow and ice.[CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH]

Forecast Discussion

The high pressure system from Canada will make its impact tomorrow and the subsidence associated to this anticyclone will deliver clearing skies for the end of the week.  Associated with this, are light winds and partly to mostly sunny conditions.  Anticyclonic motions provide descending air, which is adiabatically warming, would reduce the amount of relative humidity throughout the region limiting the amount of cloud cover.  Throughout the next few days, cold but consistent temperatures move in from the north will be providing seasonal temperatures of around 30-35 degrees.  

Late Thursday, into Friday, a secondary anticyclone from the Rockies, mentioned yesterday is likely to travel through the southern plains and eventually keep moving west to east through the central U.S., missing the upper Midwest to the south.  The effects are still felt however, as there will be warm air advection from the south giving us warmer than average temperatures for the weekend.  Along with this are clear conditions for most of the weekend as well.

Later in the forecast, Sunday, a low pressure trough pushes its way south from Canada into the Wisconsin region.  This brings ascending air and clouds return to the forecast along with a small chance of showers. 

After this pressure trough from the north, a low pressure system to the southwest, centered over the Great Plains brings in colder conditions and a good chance for a rain/snow mix on Monday.  There will most likely be rain during the morning/afternoon when temperatures are higher, and then snow once the cold front moves in and daytime highs end.

Will Hahn and Andrew Goenner


  1. Will and Andrew - Overall, I think that you guys did an awesome job to finish out the second round of blog posts. You make sure to integrate a lot of great dynamical details into your forecast discussion and your public briefing hits on all the important sensible weather events for the week and the atmospheric structures they are associated with. The inclusion of some plots into your forecast discussion is great as well, though I would suggest that you want to include a more specific description of what they show within the text. This is done to some degree most effectively with your 850 hPa temperature maps on Monday, but you'll want to specify what time the map shows in the forecast. Similar comments hold true for the other maps you've shown at 500 hPa and the surface where you want to more directly reference what they show in your write-up. Nevertheless, this is a great series of blog posts you two have put forth and I'm definitely appreciative of the dynamical insight you've provided.

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  3. Overall, our forecast was hit or miss. We expected the high pressure systems to have more influence and clear out the clouds, but it didn't pan out that way and we didn't get the clear skies as predicted. This is likely due to the high dew points we experienced this weekend making way for cloudy/foggy conditions. However, we were able to accurately predict many of the temperatures that occurred throughout the week and into the weekend. Our furthest out forecast for Monday, was off as well. We predicted the 540 line to drop further south and give us snow and ice. The precipitation was well predicted, but we didn't predict the right type.

    In the end, this was one of the harder forecasts, because the weather we experienced was unexpected from the models we looked at earlier in the week. Temperatures were accurate, but the conditions were off. It's an area that we will have to investigate further in future forecasts.


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