Monday, December 8, 2014

Calm Week Ahead

Public weather briefing

After a cold, rainy, and icy Monday morning and afternoon, clearing conditions and average afternoon temperatures, for this time of year, are anticipated for the week ahead.  The rainfall from this morning and early-to-mid afternoon will clear out this evening with the area of rain moving from west to east out of the region.  High pressure moves into the area, within the next day or so from Canada, providing calm conditions for the week ahead.  Along with this, another high pressure system from the Rockies arrives in the region later in the week providing for more mild conditions.  Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow will be a bit chilly hitting just below 20 degrees.  Daytime high temperatures will slowly increase throughout the week providing for a very comfortable weekend, temperature wise.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are the main feature of the middle of the week, before the clouds return for the weekend.


Tonight. Rain should clear out after 8 pm.  Moderate northwest wind at about 10 mph with lows in the middle 20's.

Tuesday. Partly sunny with some clouds, along with light to moderate winds. High in the middle 30's, around 34.

Tuesday night. A few clouds, but mostly clear and very cold.  Low in the upper teen's.

Wednesday. Sunny and cool. Light winds. High around 30. Very cold low, once again, in the upper teen's

Thursday. Mostly sunny. High near 35.

Outlook for Friday through Sunday. Warmer temperatures arrive for the weekend.  High in the low 40's for Friday, and middle 40's for Saturday and Sunday.  Along with the warmer temperatures, the clouds return as it is likely to be partly to mostly for the most of the weekend.  [CONFIDENCE: HIGH]

Forecast Discussion

Subsidence accompanying the arrival of a main anticyclone from Canada within the next day will provide clearing skies.  Associated with this, are light winds and partly to mostly sunny conditions.  Anticyclonic motions provide descending air, which is adiabatically warming, would reduce the amount of relative humidity throughout the region limiting the amount of cloud cover.  Throughout the next few days, cold but consistent temperatures move in from the north will be providing seasonal temperatures of around 30-35 degrees.  

Late Thursday, into Friday, a secondary anticyclone from the Rockies travels through the southern plains to the Great Lakes area, making its effect on the state, Friday and into the weekend.  Associated with this secondary height ridge is warm air advection from the south giving us warmer than average temperatures for the weekend.

Another item to mention are the GFS temperatures given at the 850 hPa level for the weekend.  

According the temperatures given at 850 hPa of about 8-10 degrees Celsius, if this air is brought down to the surface, we should expect temperatures of about 16 degrees Celsius or 60 degrees Fahrenheit.  However, this is the maximum temperature the surface could reach given the correct conditions.  At this time of the year, with the sun at its lowest angle and shortest duration in the sky, this would limit daytime heating.  Along with this, calm winds at the surface, due to the high pressure ridge, would provide very little mixing within the boundary layer, which would once again inhibit the high temperatures from reaching 60 degrees Fahrenheit.  

Overall, it should be a pretty nice week and the warm temperatures over the weekend will be welcomed after the past month of brutally cold temperatures.

Will Hahn and Andrew Goenner

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