Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Freezing Rain Possible for Case Study "Due-ms Day"

Public weather briefing

Cloudy skies on Thursday will give way to chances of precipitation starting Thursday night into Friday. The near-freezing temperatures indicate a risk of freezing rain. Precipitation will start moving out of the area by late Friday, and end completely by midnight. Saturday will be nicer, with sun and temperatures in the mid 30s. Conditions remain pleasant through Sunday evening, when we will see the next chance of precipitation into Monday afternoon.


Tonight. Partly cloudy skies with light winds. Lows around 10.

Thursday. Partly cloudy with light winds. High in the upper 20's.

Thursday night. Mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of freezing rain.  Lows in the low 30's.

Friday. Cloudy skies, with a chance of freezing rain. High 36. Low around 26.

Saturday. Clearing skies, with light winds. High of 32, Low of 24.

Outlook for Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds returning on Sunday, with a slight chance of snow in the evening. Chances of precipitation linger through Monday, with skies clearing by Tuesday. Highs in the mid 30's Sunday and Monday, cooler on Tuesday. Lows in the mid 20's. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH]

Forecast Discussion

The high pressure system that has influenced the weather over past few days will move on eastward. A low pressure system that originated off of the Baja peninsula of California will propagate eastward, reaching the Madison area by mid-Friday. Warm air advection will accompany the system, allowing highs to surpass the monthly average temperature of 32, reaching the upper 30s by the end of the work week. Subsidence associated with a high pressure system will dominate the weekend weather, with clear skies Saturday and Sunday. 

The next chance for precipitation will occur Sunday night through Monday afternoon. An upper level trough with a base over Iowa will advect positive vorticity due to thermal wind around midnight on Sunday, allowing for moist air to rise over southern Wisconsin. The chance of precipitation will end Monday afternoon as the trough propagates towards the east.  Subsidence will follow once more, due to negative vorticity advection. 

Elizabeth Schenk
Lindsey Nytes


  1. I was enticed by your title and thought your public weather briefing and forecast discussion were both engaging and informative! Great job ladies!

  2. I agree.. big fan of the play-on words!


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