Tuesday, November 25, 2014

The November Gloom Continues

Public weather briefing

After a generally cloudy Tuesday, clouds will stick around all week with slight chances of light snow Wednesday night and Friday. Temperatures will be warmer than they have been most of the month, but will remain below average for the work week. Thanksgiving will be much colder than normal, as temperatures will be in the lower 20's. Milder weather can be expected for game day on Saturday with temperatures around 40 degrees.


Tonight. Overcast conditions continue with some spotty clearing. Winds become calm. Low in the lower teens. 

Wednesday. Generally cloudy skies with a high in the upper 20's. Light winds around 5 mph.

Wednesday night. Slight chance of snow showers with accumulations of less than one half inch. Low in the middle teens. Winds increasing to around 10 mph.

Thursday. Mostly sunny skies with a high in the lower 20's. Winds around 5 mph.

Friday. Cloudy skies with a slight chance of snow. High in the lower 30's. Winds around 10 mph.

Outlook for Saturday through Monday. Cloudy skies will remain in place with highs consistently in the upper 20's to low 30's except for a brief warm up to 40 degrees on Saturday which will make for a decent game day. Winds 5-15 mph throughout the weekend into Monday.


Forecast Discussion

The cyclone located in the northern plains will dominate our weather moving through the middle of the work week as it propagates to the southeast through Iowa, Missouri, and Tennessee. Cold air advection and some vorticity advection will lead to snow Wednesday night. Strong cold air advection will lead to a cold day on Thursday while warm air advection makes its way into our area on Saturday with the associated cyclone. A chance of snow on Friday is associated with low amounts of vorticity advection. High pressure will dominate our area over the weekend although a few low pressure systems will be in our vicinity.

Brandon Lipp

Josh Weber



  1. Our forecast was a bit off for a few of the days this time around. Temperatures were cooler than expected on Wednesday despite cloud cover being as heavy as we predicted, possibly due to snow cover. Our forecast held up for Thursday through Saturday, as we accurately predicted the cold and clear skies on Thursday and the warm up for Saturday. We were off on Sunday however. We missed the fog early Sunday morning out of pure negligence as we never checked the dew point. We expected temperatures in the lower 30s with overcast skies. The cloud cover was there, but that same cloud cover prevented temperatures from dropping Saturday night, causing the high temperature on Sunday to be 43 degrees at midnight.

  2. Josh and Brandon - I'd say that you did a nice job outlining the temperature trends for the week and when we may see chances of precipitation. You also note some of the dynamical mechanisms that seemed to indicate the precipitation (i.e. positive vorticity advection). However, I believe that the inclusion of additional details into your forecast would have created a stronger product. For instance, make sure to include what features the warm/cold air advection and vorticity advection are associated with (i.e. fronts, troughs, etc.). Also within your forecast details, don't forget to include what direction you expect the wind to be oriented, as this is typically important information for those utilizing your forecast. Ultimately, these details add a richness throughout your discussion and provide a more complete picture of what to expect for the week ahead.


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