Weather forecasts for Madison, WI written by students in the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences department at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
**Forecasts presented here may not reflect the most updated weather information. Please continue to refer to your favorite source for the most current forecast**
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Bundle Up For Badger Football
Public weather briefing
The weather heading into this weekend will leave you digging through storage to find your winter jacket and gloves. An unseasonably cold air mass from the north is here to stay, and will cause temperatures over the weekend to plummet below freezing. This air mass closely resembles the pattern that dominated last winter and caused perpetual frigid conditions through much of January. Intermittent snow overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning will accompany these chilly conditions, with accumulation ranging from 1"-2", and looks give way to light flurrying conditions through Monday. Winds look to be moderate out of the north and west. Kickoff temperatures on Saturday will near 30 degrees.
Tonight.Continuing slight chance of flurries early in the evening. Cloudy overnight. Low of 18 with light winds from the northwest.
Friday. Mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures nearing 30 degrees.
Friday Night. Clouds roll in overnight. Winds light ant from the northwest. Low of 19.
Saturday. Bundle up for Badger Football! Slight chance of snow later in the afternoon/evening. Accumulation nearing 1".
Sunday. Accumulating snow (up to 1") through the morning will give way to cloudy skies in the afternoon. Highs nearing the middle to upper 20s.
Outlook for Sunday through Tuesday. Cold temperatures persist and don't look to reach above freezing through the early part of next week. Slight chance of flurries late Monday night. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]
A maturing surface cyclone centered east of the Great Lakes will continue to advect cold air into our area through the rest of the week, at which point flows become more zonal. The upper trough seen in the GFS at 700mb made its way through southern Wisconsin over Wednesday night and into Thursday morning,, causing flurries throughout the afternoon with little accumulation. This can be attributed to a very slight amount of positive vorticity advection from the plains.
Late Thursday into Friday, the 700mb vertical velocity switches to negative over our area. This subsiding air will keep conditions dry into Friday, at which point an arctic air mass to our west will drop night time temperatures below 20.
Come Saturday, slight warm air advection from the Great Plains can be noted as well as increased increased vertical motion at 18Z Saturday. The models are in moderate agreement, hence our medium forecast confidence. GFS and NAM both suggest snow falls nearing 2 inches, while the Canadian model only 1. By Sunday, the 500mb trough axis will move on east from our area. Slight vertical motion at 700mb over the area at 6Z and 9Z Sunday suggest more flurries which taper off later through the night.
The beginning of the week unfortunately will be marred with more wind out of the northwest and thus cold temps. The 850mb at 18Z Monday shows Wisconsin situated between a in geopotential minimum northeast of the Great Lakes and a ridge to our southwest. No indication of instability, vertical motion, or precipitation early next week.
All in all, Arctic air continues to slam the forecast are over the weekend with weak favorable dynamic conditions for measurable snow Saturday into Sunday.