Monday, November 24, 2014

Less Cold, But Still Cold...

Public weather briefing

After a snowy Monday, clouds will stick around all week but we will remain dry. Temperatures will be warmer than they have been most of the month, but will remain below average for the work week. Thanksgiving will be much colder than normal, as temperatures may not break 20 degrees. Milder weather can be expected for the weekend and temperatures will be near 40 and may briefly be above average. 


Tonight. Snow will continue into the overnight hours with new accumulation less than one inch. Winds will be out of the northwest around 10 mph. Low in the upper teens.

Tuesday. Snow will end around 6 am, but skies will remain overcast. Winds will be northwesterly around 5 mph. High in the mid 20s. 

Tuesday night. Overcast conditions continue. Winds become calm. Low in the mid teens. 

Wednesday. Skies will remain cloudy. Winds will be variable around 5 mph. High around 30.

Thursday. More clouds. Temperatures get significantly with high temperatures around 20.

Outlook for Friday through Sunday.  Clouds skies will remain all weekend, and there will be a slight chance of precipitation each day. Temperatures will be mild. Highs in the lower 30s for Friday before climbing near 40 on Saturday, then dropping back down to to the 30s for Sunday. Lows will be in the teens Friday morning and  in the mid 20s Saturday and Sunday.  [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

The influence of the cyclone in Ontario weakens Monday night as snow moves out of the area. Cold air advection on Tuesday will keep temperatures cold. Cyclonic flow from a low pressure system in the great plains will provide some temporary warm air advection Wednesday, but the flow will again become northwesterly and cold air advection will dominate on Thursday. There will be relatively little vertical motion until Friday, when weak vorticity advection will bring a chance for a flurry. There will be additional periods of vorticity advection Saturday and Sunday that may result in a shower or flurry respectively.
Brandon Lipp
Josh Weber


  1. Whats interesting about the precipitation event for Friday is that while we're getting flurries here in Madison, northern Wisconsin will likely be receiving another 3-4 inches of snow! It looks like there is some additional support aloft for this by the presence of a modest jet streak. Both the NAM and GFS are in good agreement about this as well which is definitely promising!

  2. Great observation Craig! If I remember correctly, Friday evening also ended up being associated with some freezing rain in the southern Wisconsin area that wasn't particularly well forecasted by the models. I would guess that the passage of a warm front Friday evening likely created a thermodynamic environment where it was above freezing a kilometer or so above the ground, but still near freezing at the surface.


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