Monday, September 21, 2015

Two's Company, Three's a Cloud!

Public weather briefing
Expect a warm, sunny week in Madison for the next week with temperatures in the late 70s and minor cloud cover later into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures tonight through next Sunday night will are expected to reach a low of 50. Winds this week are not expected to surpass 10 mph, but are expected to strengthen on Tuesday and Wednesday compared to tonight. All winds are expected blow southward to west southwestward. Tonight and tomorrow will experience clear skies with highs in the high 70s and lows in the low 50s. Wednesday through Sunday are expected to have a similar temperature profile, but are also associated with scattered fair weather cumulus clouds, which are unlikely to precipitate. There is a small chance of rain on Thursday, so be sure to pack a light jacket! Fortunately, much of the precipitation is expected to be located in Northern Minnesota and Southern Illinois, just missing Wisconsin. Similar conditions are expected for the upcoming weekend.
Tonight. Low near 50 degrees with clear skies and low winds.
Tuesday. High of 78 with mostly sunny skies. Very moderate winds up until 10 mph.
Tuesday night. Low of 55 with clear skies and low winds.
Wednesday. Scattered clouds, but overall a warm, sunny day with temperatures around 80 degrees and moderate winds up to 10 mph.
Thursday. Warm, sunny day with minor cloud cover. High around 80. Small chance of rain-around 30%.
Outlook for Friday through Sunday. Warm weekend with temperatures frequently in the late 70s for all three days. Lows in the early 50s with mostly clear nights. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]
Forecast Discussion
We are located on the eastward side of a surface anticyclone, hence the lack of expected precipitation for the Madison area. A surface cyclone as of Monday morning was found located over Utah and is expected to propagate just to the south of Wisconsin. There is about a 30% chance that precipitation associated with this anticyclone will reach Madison, WI on Thursday, however it is likely that this feature will be advected to pass through southern Illinois instead. In the meantime, well-spaced isobars associated with the anticyclonic system create conditions for low winds, if any. Temperatures are expected to stay warm, as cooler air from Canada is not expected to spill over US territory, save for some slightly chilly weather (~50 degrees) over the northern edge of the Montana/North Dakota border. The cyclone this air is associated with is not expected to advect southward enough to Wisconsin, reinforcing the high temperatures expected for the next week.

1 comment:

  1. Great briefing and discussion, Corinne! You definitely understood what is appropriate for a weather briefing vs. a forecast discussion. In particular, great description of the synoptic state over Madison (east of a surface anticyclone). A few minor suggestions: I think when you said 'late 70's' you were thinking 'upper 70's'? And instead of 'well-spaced isobars' you could say "due to a weak pressure gradient associated with the broad anticyclone". Also to be even more specific you could explain why an anticyclone means little changes of precipitation (sinking air). Also, saying 'advected' suggests a very particular phenomenon, which is likely associated with the movement of the cyclone as you described, but the cyclone is also developing as it moves. So you can just say 'this feature will move into the region'/ 'this feature is expected to move quickly eastward'. But overall excellent job here!


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