Monday, February 9, 2015

Colder Weather on the Way

Public weather briefing

The weather will be fairly docile Tuesday, with seasonal temperatures. A cyclone to the west will bring warm air into the area on Wednesday, resulting in highs around 35. The central low will will most likely pass north of Madison, resulting in only flurries. After the cyclone passes temperatures will cool significantly. Highs will be only in the teens on Thursday, and will likely remain in the teens and single digits through the weekend.


Tonight. Clear to partly cloudy skies. Winds out of the northeast, dying down as the night goes on. Low around 10.

Tuesday. Mostly Overcast skies, with winds out of the southwest at 5-10 mph. Highs in the upper 20s.

Tuesday night. Cloudy skies continue. Low in the mid 20s.

Wednesday. Overcast skies. Winds around 10-15 mph. A chance for flurries. High around 35, low around 25.

Thursday. Continued clouds, a potential for some snow. High of 14, low of 11.

Outlook for Friday through Sunday. Partly cloudy through out the weekend. Temperatures will be cold. High of 17 on Friday, around 10 on Saturday and around 15 Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the single digits or below zero. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

A clipper system coming in from Canada will dominate our weather this week. As it approaches our area on Wednesday there will be significant vorticity advection to our north, and much weaker advection in the Madison area. Madison is likely to see some Flurries from the resultant vertical motion, northern Wisconsin has the potential to see six inches of snow. After the cyclone passes, it will intensify to our east, causing strong cold air advection, resulting in below normal temperatures from Thursday on.

The potential for error in our forecast hinges on the track of the cyclone as it passes through Wisconsin. However, the models have held its track fairly steady for the past few days. Another potential issue is the track and intensity of a cyclone coming through from the north on Thursday.

Brandon Lipp
Ross Braatz

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