Monday, February 2, 2015

More Snow On The Way

Public weather briefing

After a snowy weekend bringing in the most snow we have seen all season, more snow is likely on the way. A clear Monday will give way to more snow Tuesday afternoon and into the early hours of Wednesday.  Accumulation should be small at likely less than an inch of total snowfall.  Temperatures will get very cold in the mid week as lows are expected around 0 degrees or colder on Wednesday night due to the clearing conditions.  Highs will be chilly as well before rising at the start of the weekend and getting into the mid 20's.  There is slight chance of snow this weekend on Saturday and Sunday, it will be something to watch for as the week continues.


Tonight. Mostly cloudy tonight with mild southwest winds. Low between 0-5 degrees.

Tuesday. Mostly cloudy before flurries and snow in the later afternoon. Light winds and a high near 20.

Tuesday night. Continued snow until the very early morning accumulating to less than an inch.  Low around 10.

Wednesday. Mostly cloudy before clearing out later. Moderate northwest winds. High near 20. Low of -10.

Thursday. Mostly sunny. Light to moderate southwest west wind. High just above 10 degrees.

Outlook for Friday through Sunday. Cloudy throughout the weekend, with a very slight chance of snow.  Highs in the mid to high 20's, becoming almost 30 on Saturday.  Lows in the mid teens. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

At the moment, middle to high clouds are prominent along with warm air advection aloft.

This will develop further and become more prominent into Tuesday.  On Tuesday, a vorticity maximum interacts with a baroclinic zone in the upper atmosphere producing negative omega values over southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois.  From this system, Madison will receive a light amount of snow with accumulation totals likely less than an inch.

After this minor system passes by, an anticyclone moves into the area creating positive omega values and clearing conditions.  Strong cold air advection from central Canada will cause very cold temperatures and along with the clear conditions will cause lows into the negatives on Wednesday night and highs near 10 degrees on Thursday.  The National Weather Service hasn't issued any wind chill advisories or warnings yet, indicating light winds along with the cold temperatures.

Into the weekend, a frontal zone sets up and allows for the possibility of more snow and warming conditions.  Right now, forecast (NAM/GFS) models show light to moderate snowfall.

Will Hahn and Andrew Goenner

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