Tuesday, October 7, 2014

A Perfect Fall Week Ahead

Public weather briefing

Mild temperatures persist through the end of the work week. Skies will remain clear, with occasional clouds Wednesday night and Thursday. Highs will hover in the upper-50s. The weekend will be cooler, but still pleasant. Frost may occur just after dawn on Friday and Saturday. The best chance of rain will be seen Sunday night.


Tonight. Partly cloudy with skies clearing towards morning. Low around 37.

Wednesday. Clear skies through the day. Winds from the West around 10 mph. High around 59.

Wednesday night. Some clouds moving in. Low around 40.

Thursday. Mostly sunny skies. High around 58. Light winds from the Northwest. Low around 37.

Friday. Mostly sunny skies. Highs in the upper 50s. Lows in the upper 30s.

Outlook for the Weekend. Start of the weekend looks to have cool temperatures, falling into the mid-50s. Skies will be mostly sunny on Friday and Saturday. There is a possibility for frost in the early morning hours. Clouds on Sunday, with a chance of rain increasing into Sunday evening. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

The surface cyclone centered over Western Ontario is experiencing favorable conditions allowing for further development. This cyclone will propagate eastward, leaving Madison under the influence of an area of high pressure. An anticyclone associated with the high-pressure system will approach Wisconsin, resulting in sunny skies and cooling temperatures for the remainder of the week.

Tropical Storm Simon will dissolve over northern Baja California, leaving moisture behind in the atmosphere.  This will be transported through the atmosphere via a combination of vertical motion, advection, and geostrophic wind.  The moisture will leave the atmosphere over the lower Midwest on Sunday, seen as a band of precipitation travelling to the southeast. 

Elizabeth Schenk
Lindsey Nytes


  1. Temperatures were warmer this weekend than anticipated. An area of high pressure settled over the upper Midwest, with temperatures topping out in the low-60s on Saturday and Sunday. Lows dipped into the thirties, allowing for the formation of frost in the early morning hours. The sunny weather held through mid-Sunday, with a new low pressure system moving into the region in the later hours that day. The precipitation felt Sunday night and Monday was part of a large surface cyclone that pushed across the center of the country Monday afternoon, with an evident cold front stretching down almost to the Gulf of Mexico. This was not part of hurricane Simon, which was an initial hypothesis we held early last week, as Simon has already pushed off of the east coast. Observed weather conditions were consistent with our forecasts, but temperatures were warmer than we originally thought. It will help to consult more models for the next round of forecasting, and estimate conditions based on this.

  2. Liz and Lindsey - Overall there are some nice pieces to build off of for your next blog posts. You do seem to identify the major features affecting southern Wisconsin during your period (e.g. cyclones and anticyclones), however I'd like to see a bit more of a discussion of the dynamics related to these particular features. For example, you mention that the cyclone was experiencing conditions favorable for development, but it'd be great if you could discuss what these conditions actually are. Also, I think your last paragraph is a bit unclear in the forecast discussion. You can say that the remnants of Simon are expected to be found in the central US, but discuss a bit more specifically what these impacts are. As it is written, I'm a little unclear as to where you're forecasting precipitation and what is actually forcing that precipitation. As far as your discussion goes, I think you do well to touch on a bunch of different facets of your forecast, but again I'll challenge you to really integrate more dynamics as reasoning behind some of your statements. For example, you mention that temperatures were warmer than expected, but what may have facilitated these warmer temperatures. Or you also mention the existence of frost, but what helped to allow this to occur (clear skies, light winds?). Nevertheless, keep thinking critically about ways to apply the dynamics and you'll be well positioned for Round 2.


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