Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Beautiful Fall Weather Persists

Public Weather Briefing

This crisp, fall air is here to stay! The clear skies, moderate, shifting winds, and high temperatures in the upper 50s that dominated the past few days will continue into later this week and through the upcoming weekend. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night look cooler, with daytime highs remaining pleasant. Wind speeds will stay moderate through the end of the week and into the weekend. Clear skies overnight Thursday will present favorable conditions for frost early Friday morning, with identical conditions occurring Friday night into Saturday morning. Clear skies look to dominate for the Badger football on Saturday, with temperatures nearing 50 at kickoff. Cloudy skies and chances of precipitation enter the region Saturday night and look to remain into early next week.


Tonight. Party cloudy with light westerly winds. Low around 40.

Thursday. Clouds clearing in the afternoon hours. High around 56 with moderate winds.

Thursday night. Clear skies may give way to overnight frost. Low around 38.

Friday. Lingering frost in the morning will give way to party cloudy skies in the afternoon. Moderate winds with a high around 55.

Saturday. Mostly sunny skies will make for a beautiful Badger Saturday. Temperatures at kickoff nearing 50, with a high of 57. Winds light and variable.

Outlook for Sunday through Wednesday. Clouds roll in Saturday night and stick around into early next week. Earliest rain chances Sunday afternoon, with lingering chances remaining Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures stay in the upper 50s, with overnight lows dropping into the middle 40s. [CONFIDENCE: HIGH]

Forecast Discussion

The well-defined cyclone situated over western Ontario will remain generally immobile, slowly moving eastward over the next 48 hours. According to the GFS from 0006 UTC, Madison's location on the southwestern fringe of the cyclone is responsible for the moderate, consistently northwesterly winds. Moving into Thursday evening, our area will no longer be severely impacted by said cyclone, but rather a weak anticyclone originating over Alberta, situated over the Great Plains. This anticyclone will be associated with clear conditions leading to the excessive nighttime heat loss, thus rationalizing the possible development of frost.

Our chances of precipitation Sunday come from the GFS analysis of 500mb, where Madison is situated upstream of a weak trough in geopotential height. Our case for vertical motion is further reinforced by a small region of positive vorticity at 500mb. Despite these conditions, we do not anticipate significant moisture in the air in order to produce precipitation. This comes from the forecasted cloudy conditions acting as a cap for convection.

Daniel Knuth
Rebecca Schultz

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