Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Moist and Cool Days Ahead

Public weather briefing

We knew that the nice weather wouldn't last forever, and the upcoming days are a clear indicator of that fact. Thursday brings rain for most of the day and a chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Around midnight on Thursday night/Friday morning, the winds will shift from southerly to out of the northwest. There will still be a chance for showers on Friday, but leading into the weekend, dryer and cooler conditions will prevail. Following the weekend, temperatures will warm up slightly but won't reach the arguably unseasonable temperatures of late.


Tonight.  Slight chance of t-storm and showers through the night, temps in the low 60s

Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms likely. High around 72.

Thursday night. More showers.  Low in the 50's.

Friday. Chances for showers continue. Winds shift to NW through early morning. Winds 10-15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. High of 56, low of 37.

Saturday. Much cooler and drier. Partly cloudy with a high of 48, low of 35

Outlook for Sunday through Tuesday. Another cooler day Sunday, with highs in the low 50s under partly cloudy skies. Much clearer days early into next week, with temperatures warming up slightly into the upper 50s on Monday and low 60s by Tuesday. [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

The current pattern of warm air advection over our area will change drastically over the next 24 hours, as a moderate cyclone currently centered over central Manitoba moves eastward, bringing a significant cold front through late Thursday night around midnight, with winds shifting from generally southerly to out of the northwest. Cold air advection will prevail after the front moves through, with a surge of Canadian air southward during the day Friday and into the weekend. Cloudy skies on Friday will further prevent temperatures from rebounding during the day, making for a cool, potentially rainy day Friday. 

Conditions will dry out considerably into the weekend, due to the cool, dry air being advected southward, with colder air lingering through most of the weekend. Precipitation will mainly be limited to during the day Thursday and into Thursday night and Friday morning. The GFS 700mb vertical motion in combination with the surface precipitation map indicates that the maximum precipitation will occur more along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border and progress northeastward, as the surface low moves into northern Canada. Therefore, the rain we see Thursday into Friday will likely be less significant than west of the forecast area. Next week appears to warm up, as the cold air advection subsides, with winds generally out of the west.

Alex Haugstad
Conner Hardesty

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