Monday, September 15, 2014

Seasonable weather returns

Public weather briefing

After a chilly weekend and a "drizmal" (drizzly+dismal) Monday morning and early afternoon, clearing conditions and milder afternoon temperatures are anticipated for the week ahead.  The rainfall from this morning and early-to-mid afternoon will end in southeastern WI this evening and skies will clear from west to east.  Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow will be a bit below normal but will moderate later this week.  Daytime high temperatures will slowly increase this week with mostly sunny skies.  Rain and rain showers are possible on Saturday.


Tonight. Clearing with light northerly winds. Lows in the upper 30's.

Tuesday. Mostly sunny with light winds. High around 65.

Tuesday night. Clear and cool.  Low in the lower 40's.

Wednesday. Sunny and warmer. Light winds. High 68. Low around 45.

Thursday. Continued sunny. High near 70.

Outlook for Friday through Sunday. Partly cloudy Friday, rain and rain showers Saturday, clearing Sunday.  Highs in the mid 70's Friday and around 70 Saturday and Sunday. Lows in the 50's.

Forecast Discussion

Subsidence accompanying the arrival of an anticyclone over the upper-midwest this evening will provide clearing skies.  With light winds and clear skies, radiational cooling will be maximized leading to chilly nights tonight and Tuesday.  With full sun, the high temperatures on Tuesday will easily rebound into the mid 60's.  A weak but dry frontal passage on Wednesday afternoon will slow the warm-up over the state as another anticyclone builds over the area from southern Canada. As the anticyclone moves east, warm thickness advection will boost temperatures up to and beyond daily normals for the week's end (average daily high temperature for later in the week 70F; low 49F).

The only wrinkle in an otherwise dry forecast for the week, is the overall fate of Hurricane Odile located over the southern Baja Peninsula of Mexico.  The remnants of the cyclone (primarily the water vapor) are forecast by the GFS to move into the southwestern US and then northeast to the midwest by weeks end. If this moisture gets entrained into the broad southwesterly flow expected to develop over the central US, a wet Saturday is possible for southern Wisconsin.

Michael C. Morgan

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