Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Sunny and Clear Conditions Followed by Possible Rain Next Week

Public weather briefing

The passing cloud cover associated with the precipitation to our west will move north/northeast out of the area by Thursday night providing mostly clear and sunny skies for Friday and the weekend.  Light southerly/southwesterly winds will continue to bring comfortable temperatures in the mid to upper 70s to the region through the rest of the week and into the weekend.  Lows are expected to be in the mid to lower 50s providing the outlook for an excellent September weekend which will persist into Monday morning.  Mostly sunny skies will persist through the day on Monday with light showers possibly moving over Madison and the surrounding areas during the night.


Tonight. Mostly cloudy with light wind. Low around 54.

Thursday. Partly cloudy with light wind.  High around 73.

Thursday night. Clearing skies and light wind. Low near 53.

Friday. Sunny with light wind.  Highs in the upper 70s.  Lows in the lower 50s

Saturday. Continued clear and sunny with light wind. Highs in the upper 70s.  Lows in the lower 50s.

Outlook for Sunday through Monday. Mostly sunny on Sunday with light wind.  Mostly sunny Monday with the chance of a light shower during the overnight.  Highs in the upper 70s Sunday and mid-70s Monday. Lows in the 50's. [CONFIDENCE: HIGH]

Forecast Discussion

The rain showers associated with an area of upper level divergence over Minnesota/Iowa are expected to die out before they reach southern Wisconsin due to a layer of dry air covering the region as well as dissipation of the upper level trough as it moves northeast.  The remaining moisture will provide scattered cloud cover through most of the day Thursday.

An anticyclone centered over Lakes Erie and Ontario will persist through the weekend and continue to advect warm, dry air from the south/southwest. As a result, mostly clear skies will persist producing cooler night time temperatures.  The anticyclone is projected by the GFS to move out of the eastern great lakes region Sunday night as a weak cyclone develops over western Ontario. With support by an upper level trough, the cyclone is projected to move along the eastern border of the Great Lakes through Monday.  This cyclone, accompanied by an area of modest baroclinicity moving into Wisconsin from the north, poses a threat of light rain Monday night. 

Craig Oswald and Cody Kuchinski

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