Thursday, September 18, 2014

A perfect Friday followed by an unsettled Saturday

Public weather briefing

Cool conditions on Thursday are not expected to last long, as winds will become southerly overnight tonight, ushering in warmer air and temperatures in the 70's for Friday. The passage of a warm front on Friday night will set up a warm and humid Saturday with temperatures in the mid-70's. Along with these more humid conditions comes a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances appear to be the highest prior to kickoff, so it might be wise to bring a tent and poncho to your tailgate, and taper off into the afternoon. A cold front sweeps through Saturday evening, setting up an absolutely perfect stretch of September weather for southern Wisconsin through the middle of next week.


Tonight. Becoming partly cloudy. Light easterly winds turning southerly towards morning. Lows around 50.

Friday. Mostly sunny and breezy. Southerly winds 10-20 mph. Highs in the low 70's

Friday night. Increasing clouds with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms towards dawn. Southerly winds 7-15 mph. Lows in the lower 60's.

Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the morning, with chances tapering off during the afternoon. Warm and Humid with highs in the mid 70's and lows in the upper 50's. Rainfall accumulations on the order of a half an inch with locally higher amounts in thunderstorms.

Sunday. Mostly sunny and less humid. Highs around 70.

Outlook for Monday through Wednesday. Sunny skies and pleasant. Highs in the mid-60's on Monday, increasing to near 70 by Wednesday. Lows in the mid-40's. [CONFIDENCE: HIGH]

Forecast Discussion

Winds are expected to become southerly overnight as the Canadian anticyclone over our area shifts further eastward, encouraging the return of higher thicknesses over the area on Friday. A warm front approaches southern Wisconsin on Friday night, bringing a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms by early Saturday morning at the nose of a strong low-level jet. At the moment, it appears that rain chances will taper off during the afternoon. However, a forecast challenge surrounds the speed of the cold front expected to pass through Saturday evening. Current model forecasts show the front passing through before a renewed round of precipitation develops in response to low-level frontogenesis along the boundary. If the front slows down, southern Wisconsin may experience extended chances of showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon and early evening hours.

By Sunday, an upper-level ridge and Canadian anticyclone settle into the area, setting up the beginning of an absolutely perfect stretch of late-September weather. General subsidence and the dry air mass in place are expected to keep skies clear for the early part of the week, helping to warm temperatures into the mid-60's during the day and cooling off into the mid-40's overnight.

Andrew C. Winters

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