Monday, October 19, 2015

Warm Weather Transitioning to Average

Public weather briefing

Seasonably warm weather with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average will continue to hang around Tuesday and Wednesday, but a cold front associated with a weak low pressure system in northern Minnesota will put a damper to our summer-like temperatures with showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder as it moves through on Wednesday afternoon. A Canadian high pressure system over Ontario influencing our weather will result in a drier, sunny, and more seasonably-average temperatures for Thursday. A weak low pressure system will track through Wisconsin from the Plains on Friday night and Saturday, bringing a likely chance of showers. This system moves out early Sunday as a high pressure system builds in from the Plains, leading to a dry Sunday.


Tonight. Partly cloudy, with a low near 54. Southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday. Mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers late afternoon and into the evening. High around 72. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Tuesday night. Mostly cloudy with a moderate chance of showers and a low near 53. Light southerly winds at 5 mph.

Wednesday. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers during the day and clouds clearing overnight. High near 67, with a low around 41. Winds 10 to 20 mph during the day shifting from the south to the northwest.

Thursday. Sunny and cooler, with a high around 60 and a low near 40.

Outlook for Friday through Sunday. Showers likely Friday night, otherwise mostly cloudy during the day with a high near 59 and a low around 51. Showers again are possible Saturday, transitioning to clear skies for Saturday night and Sunday. For Saturday and Sunday, highs will be in the mid to upper 50's and lows will be in the upper 30's.  [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

A weak shortwave trough moving into Wisconsin from Minnesota brings a chance of rain Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will be followed by a surface cold front associated with an upper level trough in southwestern Ontario and southern Manitoba. Soundings reveal an environment with a few hundred joules of CAPE, meaning some weak convection may be possible as this cold front passes through our region. Still, the highest differential vorticity advection and Q-vector convergence is to our north in northern Wisconsin. Height rises follow as the low pressure system over southern Ontario tracks northeastward on Thursday and ridging builds into our region. A weak lee-side trough forms on the Rockies and slides into our region Friday night into Saturday with a very disorganized vorticity field, although it will still produce some measurable precipitation. High pressure from the plains will bring quiet weather to Madison for Sunday.

Robert Kelnosky

1 comment:

  1. On Tuesday, the forecast correctly stated that the high would be 72F, but the low was 48F instead of 53F. On Wednesday, the high was 72F and the low was 56F which was slightly higher than what was expected in the forecast. No measurable precipitation occurred as the rain dissipated shortly before reaching Madison. On Thursday, the high was 65F and the low was 40F. Madison received 0.36 inches of rain on Friday and 0.73 inches of rain on Saturday.


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