Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Midterms: Not the Only Source of High Pressure

Public weather briefing

This week is set up to end exactly the way it started: with clear, sunny skies and temperatures consistently ranging from 30 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit. No precipitation is expected until Tuesday at the earliest. Maximum wind speeds this week are expected to be around 15 mph. Friday and Saturday will be the coolest days this week (and not just because of the start of the weekend!) with highs of 50, so wear a light sweater.


Tonight. Clear Skies with no precipitation. Lows in the mid 40s.Thursday. Partly cloudy with light winds. High in the upper 60s..\Thursday night. Partly cloudy with winds of or under 10 mph.Friday. Sunny, but cool. High of 50 and a low of 30. Winds during the day around 10 mph.
Saturday. Clear and cool. High of 50 and low of 30.
Outlook for Sunday through Tuesday. 
Sunday and Monday will be very similar to Friday and Saturday, as Madison will continue to be sunny with light winds. Sunday and Monday will get progressively warmer, with respective highs of 60 and 65 and respective lows of 40 and 50. 30% chance of rain on Tuesday with a high of 70 and low of 50.  [CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM]

Forecast Discussion

Much of the western United States lies just south of a significant ridge. This is creating a bubble of high pressure moving west to east that is expected to go envelop Wisconsin over the last few days of the week, hence the lack of precipitation and any significant cyclonic action. The change in along-flow wind speed at all levels (particularly at 300 mb) is relatively low, meaning this feature is not expected to gain substantial energy. Any precipitation or cool air next week is instead expected to come from cool Canadian air pushed southward by cyclonic activity off the Gulf of Alaska.
Conversely, the American Northeast is enveloped in a minor cyclone, which is likely to have precipitative consequences for our wxchallenge forecasting results! Keep an eye out!

Corinne Trott

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